Our team of crop analysts constantly monitor the world’s major growing regions. To understand what’s happening in the ground, we look to the sky by using scientific-grade satellite data to power industry-leading analytics.
This virtual crop tour is for purpose of check the current conditions in the Corn Belt area in the US and give you insights into what to expect of the key crops in the US.
UNITED STATES – Is there a problem with drought in any region?
In the last 30 days the volume of rain ① was below average in much of the Corn Belt, mainly in the West. In addition to low rainfall, high temperatures in the Dakotas and part of Minnesota kept soil moisture low ②. In these regions, the yield is expected to be affected by bad weather conditions, as well as Nebraska and Kansas (but with lower intensity). In Iowa and Illinois, the heart of corn and soybean production, soil moisture is, in most parts, above average, favorable for production. In the eastern part of the Corn Belt, soil moisture is also above average, however, in some parts of Indiana and Ohio, the vegetation indices has deteriorated in recent days, which may be a misreading due to the presence of clouds, but there is a need to continue monitoring to confirm this theory.
UNITED STATES – Expectation for the next days: Low precipitation.
ALERT FOR WESTERN PART OF CORN BELT
For the next 10 days, the European model (ECMWF) ① points to low rainfall in most of the corn and soybean zone, which will be unfavorable for crops located in the west of the Corn Belt (in the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas and part of Iowa). However, the American model (GFS) ② is more optimistic and points to high precipitation for some regions where there is strong water stress, such as part of North Dakota and Minnesota. If the drought is confirmed, there may be a reduction in the estimate for corn and soybean production.
UNITED STATES – Overview of corn and soybean production in US.
Geosys estimates that corn production should be 1.2% higher than the average of the last 5 years and soybeans 0.9% higher, in the same comparison. Soybean yield should be 1.0% lower than the average of the last 5 years while for corn, the yield should be 0.1% higher than the average of the last 5 years.
The Virtual Crop Tour was held between 08/09 to 08/13 and aimed to assess the conditions of corn and soybean fields in the main agricultural regions of United States, in order to clarify the scenario for Geosys customers. To find out about production estimates from US and other countries, contact us and purchase our services.
To learn more about Geosys, please visit: https://geosys.com/
ILLINOIS: Can high rainfall affect crops?
In eastern Illinois, in recent days the vegetation indices ① has shown a sharp drop, but that could be a misreading due to the presence of clouds. High soil moisture ② indicates high precipitation in recent days and supports this theory. The water balance (precipitation – evapotranspiration) ③ presents an analogy with 2014 (good year). Careful with the volume of rain, which is high and can limit yield potential if there is excess of water.
ILLINOIS: Are there concerns about drought in northern Illinois?
In northern Illinois, NDVI ① showed poor dynamics in recent days and is slightly below average, which may be associated with a drop in soil moisture ② in late July and early August. However, a reading error cannot be put away of the table due to the presence of clouds. Only in the last seven days it rained 40.45 mm or 1.59 in (against an average of 21.67 mm or 0,85 in) ③. For the next few days, the ECMWF sees low rainfall (GFS is more optimistic).
ILLINOIS: Is there cause for concern?
In central Illinois, the vegetation indices ① is at the highest level for the period compared to the last five years. The soil moisture ②, even with the drop in July, is above average, which is favorable for crop development. Rainfall ③ in June and July was above average, and despite the cumulative precipitation below average in August, drought is still not a concern. If the NDVI continues to show a good evolution, the yield should be high in the region.
IOWA: Is the soil moisture level a cause for concern?
In east Iowa, the vegetation indices ① is at a good level, similar to the good year of 2017. Soil moisture ② has increased in recent days, which was favorable for crops. After the drought at the beginning of the cycle (first days of June), rainfall increased, reducing the risk of crop failure as in 2012. For the next few days, ECMWF sees low rainfall ③, but it should not be a problem in the short term.
IOWA: Is the drop in soil moisture a concern?
In southern Iowa, the high rainfall in July ① lost intensity in August and the volume of rainfall in the last 10 days was below average. The vegetation indices ② continues to show good dynamics and is at the highest level compared to recent years. Soil moisture ③ remains above average and shows a similarity with the good year of 2015. For the next few days, the forecast is that soil moisture will decrease, but it should remain above average.
IOWA: Is there cause for concern in northwest Iowa?
In northwest Iowa, the vegetation indices ① is at a good level, higher compared to recent years. However, the water balance ② presents an analogy with the bad year of 2020. In the previous season, low soil moisture in August and September limited the crops yield potential. Therefore, the next few weeks will be important for the development of the grains. The forecast is that soil moisture ③ will remain below average in the short term. To monitor.
IOWA: Is rainfall volume cause for concern?
In central Iowa the NDVI ① is high and has had good dynamic in recent days, in line with increasing soil moisture ②. In the previous season (2020), the drought in August and September affected negatively the crops, however, in the last 11 days the volume of rain was already greater than the entire month of August 2020, which reduces the risk of a scenario similar to last year. However, ECMWF sees low rainfall for the next two weeks, GFS is more optimistic ③.
OHIO: Is the drop in soil moisture already a concern?
In western Ohio, although the vegetation indices ① is still above average, the NDVI dynamic has worsened in recent days. Soil moisture ② dropped sharply, which may explain the slight deterioration in vegetation vigor in the last week. There is still no concern, however, if the drought persists, the yield potential could be affected. For the next few days, the European model (ECMWF) points to low rainfall, but the GFS is more optimistic ③.
INDIANA: Is there cause for concern?
In eastern Indiana, even with the sharp drop in soil moisture ① in recent weeks, the vegetation indices ② is at a good level, similar to 2020 (good year). The good volume of rain in June and July ③ allowed for the good development of crops in the first third of the cycle. Below-average soil moisture is not yet a problem but should be monitored.
INDIANA: Precipitation to follow high in the short term?
In western Indiana, the vegetation indices ① has deteriorated sharply in recent days, but the drop in the NDVI could be a misreading due to the presence of clouds. There is a need to wait a few days to confirm this statement, but the high soil moisture ② and above-average rainfall ③ in recent days supports this theory. To monitor.
INDIANA: Is low rainfall cause for concern?
In southwestern Indiana, the vegetation indices ① is at the highest level in recent years and even with the recent drop in soil moisture ②, there is no concern about drought in the region. The good rains ③ in the last two months were favorable for the development of crops. The forecast is that soil moisture will increase in the short term.
NEBRASKA: Is there cause for concern?
In northeastern Nebraska, soil moisture ① is below average and is forecast to remain so in the short term, as well as in the 2020 season. However, for now, NDVI ② shows no signs of deterioration. In 2020, the low soil moisture impacted the vegetation indices, which dropped at the end of August. So, if rainfall remains low, as it was in 2020, when monthly rainfall ③ was well below the average in August and September, it is likely that there will be a reduction in yield potential. Therefore, the coming weeks will be decisive for the development of crops.
NEBRASKA: Should drought continue?
In southeastern Nebraska, the vegetation indices of ① is at a good level. However, below-average soil moisture ② is something to pay attention. In 2020, the low rainfall in August and September reduced the yield potential of the crops. In 2019, high rainfall (in the same period) allowed for better crop development (although it must be considered that bad weather conditions at the beginning of the cycle affected the yield in the 2019 season). For the next few days, the forecast (ECMWF and GFS) points to low rainfall ③ for the region, which increases the risk of a crop failure in the current season. To monitor.
NEBRASKA: NDVI already showing signs of deterioration?
In western Nebraska’s Corn and Soybean Zone, vegetation indices ① is low and highlights the poor state of crops. Low soil moisture ② explains this scenario. Cumulative precipitation ③ (considering since the beginning of August) should remain at a low level, which should keep soil moisture below average and limit the yield potential of crops.
KANSAS: Is there cause for concern in the Kansas corn zone?
In western Kansas, as well as in part of Nebraska, NDVI ① is below average and shows signs of deterioration due to the drought. Soil moisture ② is low, in line with the bad year of 2012. Monthly precipitation ③ in June and July was low and, if the drought continues into the coming weeks, the estimated yield will suffer negative adjustments.
KANSAS: Should conditions improve in the short term?
In northeast Kansas, the high soil moisture ① in mid-June and early July was favorable for crops and even with the drop in soil moisture in recent weeks, the vegetation indices ② remains at a good level. The water balance ③ (P-ETP) points to a water deficit, but a much more favorable situation than in 2012, when the drought had a strong impact on the yield. But for the next few days, soil moisture should remain below average. Unfavorable scenario for the short term.
NORTH DAKOTA: Are the conditions worrying?
In North Dakota, water balance ① shows water stress. In addition, the high-temperature ② keeps the soil moisture ③ at a very low level. Vegetation indices ④ already shows signs of deterioration and is at a lower level than in 2012 (bad year). The scenario is the reason for concern and the forecast is that soil moisture will remain below average in the short term.
MINNESOTA: Has drought-affected crops?
In northern Minnesota, the vegetation indices ① is far below average and indicates low productivity for this season. The cumulative precipitation ② is at its lowest level in comparison to recent years (considering the period since June), which keeps soil moisture ③ very low and explains the low value of the NDVI. The forecast is that soil moisture will increase in the short term, but it should remain well below average and be insufficient to totally recover crops.
MINNESOTA: Is the NDVI at a worrying level?
In southern Minnesota, despite low rainfall ① in recent weeks and below-average soil moisture, the vegetation indices ② show no signs of collapse. Soil moisture ③ and the NDVI show an analogy with the year 2015, but in 2015, soil moisture had an important improvement in August and the forecast points to a continuation of the drought in the short term, which could have a negative impact. To monitor.
SOUTH DAKOTA: Should drought continue in the coming days?
In northern South Dakota, the NDVI ① is above average and higher than in the southern region of North Dakota. However, soil moisture ② has been decreasing since mid-July and precipitation ③ is expected to remain low in the coming days, which should keep soil moisture at a low level. Unfavourable conditions which can negatively impact the crops. To monitor.
SOUTH DAKOTA: Should conditions improve in the short term?
In South Dakota, soil moisture ① is below average, but higher than the 2012 season (bad year). NDVI ② is above average and shows no signs of collapse. But the forecast is that the drought ③ will continue, which could limit the yield potential of crops.